Robin Pottratz2009 Oscars: A Geek's Predictions
February 22nd 2009 16:52
The 2009 Academy Awards air February 22nd...will there be any surprises?
Well, it all ends tonight. The speculation, the predictions, the prognosticating, and the fierce debate all ends at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood. It is time for the 2009 Academy Awards, a night that should provide many memorable and sobering moments. As far as the major categories go...I have my own thoughts that I have made abundantly clear on this website, but I will offer my predictions on who will win tonight...as well as who SHOULD win tonight.
Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Should Win: Josh Brolin. Josh Brolin has had a hell of a year and a half. From No Country for Old Men, to American Gangster, to W, Josh Brolin has proven what a phenomenal actor he truly is. In Milk, Brolin delivers his finest work yet. The part of Dan White is not an easy one, and Brolin does not make a single false step. It is a very inward performance and we feel every element of that inner conflict on Brolin's clean cut face. His performance is haunting and deeply powerful and the Academy should honor him accordingly.
Will Win: Heath Ledger. I have made my feelings about Heath Ledger known for a while now. His death was a tragedy, but I think that no one judged his work in the past or his work in The Dark Knight sanely. It was a very fun performance, but it wasn't Oscar worthy. He is going to win, but it will be for the wrong reasons. There are only going to give it to him because he died, and there is no denying that. I am hoping for an Oscar upset...but its not going to happen.
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Should Win: Marisa Tomei. Tomei brings such heart and power to a very underwritten role in Darren Aronofsky's squared circle masterpiece. The Wrestler belongs to Mickey Rourke, but Tomei holds her own in the gritty atmosphere that the film creates. In the chaotic world of Randy "The Ram" Robinson, Tomei's stripper, Cassidy, provides the film's compassionate heart, and for that, she deserves her second Oscar. Also, she deserves it for being 44 years old and still having a smokin strippers body...and being fearless enough to show it.
Will Win: Penelope Cruz. Truth be told, I just don't get it. Her performance as Javier Bardem's crazy ex-wife in Woody Allen's romantic farce just falls flat. The performance is merely standing around, posing, and looking like the beautiful Penelope Cruz. She tries her hardest in the film...but it just doesn't work...FYI the Academy won't mind a bit.
Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Should Win: Anne Hathaway. I was unprepared for the amazing performance that Hathaway delivered as a firebrand fresh out of rehab, who attends her sister's wedding in Rachel Getting Married. Hathaway makes you cringe every time she speaks and is able to level that toxicity of her monologues with the aching heart of a sad, lonely girl who is still reeling from a family tragedy. Hathaway could still win...except for two words...Bride Wars. If her performance in Rachel Getting Married is any indication, this will not be her only trip to the Academy Awards.
Will Win: Kate Winslet. This year has been one of the strongest Best Actress fields in years. Every nominee is worthy, and Winslet winning for The Reader is no lock...Meryl Streep still looms close. However, I think that it is just her year. She is phenomenal in The Reader, so she does truly deserve it...but I think that this also seen as more of a career achievement award and also the Academy saying "We're Sorry" to one of the best actors of her generation. If Kate Winslet does win, I will be hard pressed to find anyone who would disagree that she hasn't earned it.
Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should Win: Mickey Rourke. Mickey Rourke as Randy "The Ram" Robinson is one of the greatest fusions of player and part in recent cinema. Rourke feels every ounce of pain that runs through his wrestling alter ego. It took thirty years, but Rourke has managed to find the role that truly captured his talent and show us why he had some much acclaim in the first place. Rourke delivers a performance for the ages and he truly deserves this award.
Will Win: Mickey Rourke. Sometimes the right performance is honored. The favorite is still Sean Penn in Milk, and while Penn delivers something wonderful in his own right, it just doesn't compare to Rourke's tour de force. I think that everything has come together perfectly for Rourke and it is just his time for a long delayed moment in the sun.
Best Director:
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Should Win: Gus Van Sant. In Milk, Van Sant has the tall task of creating a docudrama complete with the use of newsreel footage and still attempt to capture the spirit of Harvey Milk and make sure that spirit bleeds through the screen. He succeeds with flying colors. Milk is a film event, and while Sean Penn has been receiving most of the credit for the film's success (deserved, I might add)...credit should also be due to Gus Van Sant for bringing a poet's eye to the story of Harvey Milk and making it truly something remarkable.
Will Win: Danny Boyle. Slumdog Millionaire is an explosion for all of the senses and Danny Boyle infuses every frame with the excitement and tension that comes with the fairy tale story of a poor kid from the slums of Mumbai who goes on a game show in order to win the love of his life. It also is a credit to Boyle that this film contains horribly dark material, but still leaves you with a huge smile and a full heart when you leave the theatre. While, my vote goes to Van Sant, I don't have an issue with Danny Boyle walking away with the Best Director Oscar.
Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Milk. The film that I have decided should win Best Picture meets two very specific criteria: Milk is the most important film of the 5 nominees...and Milk is, from top to bottom, the best film of the 5 nominees. From Sean Penn's virtuoso performance, to the heartbreaking turns from both Josh Brolin and James Franco, to the sharp dialogue of screenwriter Dustin Lance Black (who will probably win for his sharp screenplay) to the keen direction of Gus Van Sant. Milk is a true triumph and in our post Prop-8 society, it is a film that is needed now more than ever, and I do hope the Academy takes note.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire. I feel the same way with the Best Picture Category as I did with Best Director. Slumdog would not be my first choice, but I did enjoy the film thoroughly and if it wins Best Picture (which it is close to a lock), I will not complain because it truly is a wonderful film. Turning a film that features torture, child prostitution, and violence toward poor children...turning that into a film of such unbridled joy is an achievement and even though it is not the best of the 5...it is still very worthy of a Best Picture Oscar.
Those are my picks for the 2009 Academy Awards. So if you capitalize in your Oscar pool after reading this...I expect a cut ; ) In the meantime, get your popcorn ready, and enjoy the 2009 Oscars and cross your fingers that there will be some surprises.
| 24 |
| Vote |
subscribe to this blog